AI in Charge: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence on Electric Vehicle Charging Demand
Abstract
One of the promising opportunities offered by AI to support the decarbonization of electricity grids is to align demand with low-carbon supply, yet there is little causal evidence on household acceptance of AI managed control, and its impact on their consumption. We evaluated the effects of the world's largest AI managed EV charging tariff (a retail electricity pricing plan) using a large-scale natural field experiment. This tariff is designed to optimize EV charging by dynamically controlling charging in response to real-time wholesale electricity prices. We randomized financial incentives to encourage enrollment onto the tariff and observed consumption for more than a year. We found that the tariff led to a 42% reduction in household electricity demand during peak hours, with 100% of this demand shifted to lower-cost and lower-carbon-intensity periods. The tariff generated substantial consumer savings, while demonstrating potential to lower producer costs, energy system costs, and carbon emissions through significant load shifting. Overrides of the AI algorithm were low, suggesting that this tariff was likely more efficient than a real-time-pricing tariff without AI, given our theoretical framework. We also showed that experimental estimates differed meaningfully from those obtained via non-randomized difference-in-differences analysis, due to differences in the potential outcomes of the samples in the two evaluation strategies, although we can reconcile the estimates somewhat with observables. Our findings highlight the potential for scalable managed charging and its substantial welfare gains for the electricity system and society.